michal_dubrawski
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2023 10:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (-5%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2023 to Nov 30, 2023
I am going down, as we discussed during today's Pro Forecasters Team call it would take tremendous international pressure (political and economical) to make Israel go for a ceasefire with Hamas that fast (h/t @PeterStamp ). Using backcasting we discussed what could lead into that state of event (h/t Trent). I think the reason for such a preasure would have to be an extreem escalation so that the world and especially the US would want to deescalate quickly.
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