grainmummy
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 19, 2025 to May 19, 2026
100% (0%)
No
Nov 19, 2025 to May 19, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

The widespread public opposition in the Muslim world to normalization with Israel, exacerbated by the military operations in Gaza, has made it politically difficult for leaders to move forward without major, concrete concessions to the Palestinians, which Israel is currently unwilling to make.

Saudi Arabia’s MBS Demands Palestinian State Path Before Israel Normalization Deal

For decades, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has maintained a conditional approach to possible normalization with Israel, based on Saudi support for the advancement of Palestinian interests and the establishment of a Palestinian state. In the context of the Israel-Hamas conflict and Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip since October 2023, the kingdom said in February 2024 that "there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is recognized on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, and that the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip stops and all Israeli occupation forces withdraw from the Gaza Strip.

Israel and Sudan agreed to normalize relations in October 2020; however, the formal signing of the documents — originally expected to take place in Washington in 2023 — was delayed due to Sudan’s domestic turmoil and the ongoing war in Gaza. In December 2020, Israel and Morocco established official diplomatic ties.

Following the overthrow of the Sudanese government in October 2021 and the country’s descent into civil war in April 2023, Sudan drew closer to Iran, and progress on relations with Israel came to a halt.

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