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404_NOT_FOUND

Nicolò
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"Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance" - Daniel Kahneman

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2025 Season Stats

0.025646

Relative Brier Score

78

Forecasts

87

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 13 28 340 78 642
Comments 15 30 136 90 243
Questions Forecasted 13 16 40 23 53
Upvotes on Comments By This User 3 20 331 87 715
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
404_NOT_FOUND made their 8th forecast (view all):
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This forecast will expire on May 29, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6% (+1%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
94% (-1%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

KJU might have just started to draw a second demarcation line with SK, south of the original NLL. 

At North Korea’s grand reveal of its largest warship to date last week, leader Kim Jong Un declared that the DPRK’s naval forces will now patrol not only coastal waters but also what he called “the waters of middle demarcation lines” with other countries. [1]

“While this new line may be framed as a maritime border in peacetime, it likely implies that areas south of it are considered targets for recapture during wartime,” said Hong Min, senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification. Hong warned that North Korea could use alleged violations of this new boundary as a pretext for military provocations. [2]

At present, this only represents a purely rhetorical escalation, but it might nonetheless increase the chance of patrolling incidents happening in the proximity of the border. 

[1] Kim Jong Un’s cryptic reference to new maritime border raises naval stakes

[2] Kim Jong-un unveils destroyer, signals shift in maritime border concept

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Why might you be wrong?

This bit of the news was only reported by a couple of media outlets that focus on North Korea, so it might not be as significant a change in policy as it is suggested.

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New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
404_NOT_FOUND made their 9th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

CSIS has begun publishing a 3-part series concerning the Yongdok-tong nuclear high-explosive facility. 

Only part 1 has been released so far, but it promises to shine some light on information that was kept secret so far.

  • The Yongdok-tong Nuclear High Explosive Test Facility is the only known operating facility in the country for testing designs and components for high-explosive detonation of nuclear weapons. This is the most comprehensive report of this secret facility currently available at the unclassified level.

The CSIS speculates that the public revelation of the activities performed on the site could spur North Korea to change its current testing behavior, implying that open-air explosions of nuclear detonators are being performed there regularly.

  • The publication of this report may result in a North Korean response that could complicate the future identification of specific elements and activities at the Yongdok-tong facility. Such responses could include suspension or termination of open-air, high-explosive nuclear detonator testing, or the emergence of such testing at other locations within the nation to conceal or deceive observers about North Korea’s nuclear weapons development status and infrastructure.  [1]

For context, high-explosive nuclear detonators are conventional chemical explosions designed to compress the fissile material and initiate the nuclear explosion process.

It's plausible that the 2 remaining parts of the report could give further hints at how much nuclear research activity is ongoing at the site.

[1] Beyond Parallel - Yongdok-tong Nuclear High Explosive Test Facility: Part 1

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Why might you be wrong?

No change

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New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
404_NOT_FOUND made their 9th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
5% (0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
35% (+10%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
45% (-5%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
15% (-5%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?

Recent polls show that, 2 months late on the Bundestag election, AfD completed its comeback in the polls. [1]

Under the assumption that voters are attracted to the party with which they share most opinions, one could claim that Germans are now less anti-Russian than they were back in October/November 2024, particularly given that AfD is shamelessly pro-Russian.

Linke is another party that showed a massive gain in support in the latest polls. While it sits at the polar opposite of AfD in the Bundestag, some of its members have some particularly nostalgic views of the USSR. [3]

If it's true that two coincidences are a clue, this might be the strongest indication so far that many Germans' perception of Russia is no longer as negative as it was just a few months ago.

[1] Europe Elects - Germany

[2] Donald Trump, the AfD and conspiracy theorists

[3] Wiki - Die Linke - Russia

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Why might you be wrong?

As I've argued in the question about the Germans' perception of Ukraine, Trump's policies might dramatically shift the opinions of German citizens. I've previously argued how, being Germany particularly vulnerable to sanctions, the US favorability could decline dramatically, potentially improving the relative perception of other countries. 

Yet the latest polls might suggest other interpretations. While it seems obvious that during times of economic hardship, the leading party suffers in the polls, Germans may perceive the newly formed government as unable to properly deal with the situation, concluding that compromising with Trump is the best way forward. 

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New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
404_NOT_FOUND made their 10th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
Apr 28, 2025 to Oct 28, 2025
97% (0%)
No
Apr 28, 2025 to Oct 28, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

China's escalating tensions with Taiwan via progressively more threatening war games around the island could be a sign not of military posturing, but rather an attempt to probe the US reactions.

We’ve seen similar moves and countermoves in the waters between China and Taiwan many times before. But this time both sides are trying to decipher what the mercurial Trump really thinks. 

For China’s leaders, it’s much safer to hold off on a full-scale invasion until the military balance more decisively favors its forces, its economy is on more solid footing, and the U.S. is led by a more predictable President. The real risk is that China will test U.S. resolve and probe Trump’s responses with incremental escalations of pressure on Taiwan, none big enough on its own to create a crisis. [1]

 China will ultimately decide what to do with Taiwan with a benefit/cost analysis. The lower the predicted chance that the US would intervene militarily in defense of Taiwan, the higher the chance of success.

Despite China’s propaganda that peace would be ensured if cross-strait disputes were settled internally, Beijing’s actual behaviors suggest otherwise. China escalated its coercion campaign when it anticipated few costs would be imposed by the United States — and de-escalated when Washington showed a stronger commitment to Taiwan’s security. [2]

[1] Why China-Taiwan Relations Are Getting So Tense

[2] Placating China won't prevent it from invading Taiwan

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Why might you be wrong?

Trying to predict Trump's reaction might be wishful thinking. Not because he is a master deceiver, but due to his continuous changes of mind. 

What's worse for China at this point is that Trump might even solemnly swear he would not attempt to stop a Chinese blockade of the island, and China would be better off not believing him.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Early indications are that the ongoing blackout in Spain and Portugal isn't the result of a cyberattack.

REN said: “Due to extreme temperature variations in the interior of Spain, there were anomalous oscillations in the very high voltage lines (400 kV), a phenomenon known as ‘induced atmospheric vibration’. These oscillations caused synchronisation failures between the electrical systems, leading to successive disturbances across the interconnected European network.”
The European Council president, António Costa, who was Portugal’s prime minister from 2015 to 2024, said “there is no evidence that it was a cyber-attack”, but cautioned that the ultimate cause was still unclear. Senior European Commission vice-president Teresa Ribera also told Spain’s Radio 5 that there was no evidence of a deliberate act having caused the outage.  [1]

[1] The Guardian - Spain and Portugal power outage: what caused it, and was there a cyber-attack?

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Why might you be wrong?

The ongoing blackout in Spain is an extreme event. So much so that it highlights how the bar to clear to count as "kinetic" effect is so low that it probably includes many completely inconsequential events. 

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New Prediction
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
404_NOT_FOUND made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
2% (0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
65% (0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
30% (0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?

The Germans' perception of Ukraine at the end of 2025 might be affected by changes in how other countries are perceived. 

Trump's upending of decades of foreign policy is destroying the US reputation abroad, including among historically allied countries. Germany is set to be the European nation most affected by both the halting of US military support to Ukraine and the imposition of massive tariffs on US imports. 

The European countries might spend 2025 rallying together against the global geopolitical and economic threats. Empathy toward the Ukrainian cause might increase if the absurd Trump-Putin charade continues indefinitely. 

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Why might you be wrong?

On the theme of relative perception, it is clear that Putin (and maybe even Trump) would benefit in making it appear as if it's Zelensky who is being unreasonable in not letting go of the territories occupied by Russia.

This narrative might be powerful in turning European citizens against Ukraine. Yet, the credibility of both Putin and Trump in the EU is at a historical minimum, so I wouldn't expect vast portions of the population to subscribe to those ideas. 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

A few positive signals.

  • The Egyptian government continues to comply with the IMF's $8B support package requirements to progressively reduce subsidies to the population. [1]
  • France reaffirms its commitment to safeguard the stability of Egypt.

Reuters - France and Egypt signed strategic partnership agreements on Monday, in areas covering health, transport and energy, which French President Emmanuel Macron said would help shore up Egypt's stability amid volatility in the region. [2]

  • Egypt is one of the countries facing the lowest tariff rate of 10% for importing into the US. This could potentially provide a small but significant boost to Egypt's manufacturing industry. [3]
  • A conference for planning the reconstruction of Gaza, when the war will be over, is scheduled for the end of April. Once the conflict is halted, Egyptian companies operating in the building sector are expected to be the main beneficiaries. [4]

[1] Reuters - Egypt raises fuel prices for first time in 2025

[2] France signs deals to help Egypt's economy in volatile regional climate

[3] The New Arab - Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs offer unexpected opportunities for Egypt

[4] Middle East Monitor - Is Netanyahu harming Egypt’s economy?

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Why might you be wrong?

The ME is still on fire, with both the conflict in Gaza and the Houthi situation unresolved. Egypt's economy is disproportionately affected by both events, and any further escalation could come with massive risks for the economy. 

Tourism is a massive source of revenue for Egypt, and it sustains 8% of GDP. So far, the impact of nearby geopolitical conflicts has affected tourism only moderately due to the loss of tourists arriving from Israel. That could change quite dramatically if some negative event happens, bringing Egypt to the front pages of the media. Clashes with Israel on the border, or some incident in the Red Sea, could cause a massive bleeding of revenue from tourists cancelling their bookings.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Confirmed previous forecast

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Why might you be wrong?

No change

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Is the hype finally over? Nvidia's stock is down 20% in the past 6 months, and is about break-even in the past 11. 

Nvidia's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is now near a three-year low based on current fiscal year earnings estimates. [1]

Implying that the stock might be currently priced "right".

Also in the news

The California-based company will require licenses to export its H20 AI chip to China, a move which the US Commerce Department said was designed to safeguard "national and economic security". Nvidia said federal officials had told them the requirement will be in force for the "indefinite future". [1]

Nvidia is caught in the middle of the US/China escalating trade war. Mr Huang will now need to carefully tread to avoid angering the Trump administration while not losing its critical Chinese market.

[1] Prediction: Nvidia Stock Is Going to Soar After May 1

[2] Nvidia: The AI chip giant caught between US and China

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Why might you be wrong?

Nvidia has been one of the most volatile companies over the past years. It's therefore far from implausible that some major breaking news could send it skyrocketing once more. But the reverse is also true, and, at present, the company might be more negatively exposed to certain news.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Two months left. Once again, there is no sign of ill health or indications that a coup might be impending. The situation in both Russia and along the frontlines with Ukraine is relatively stable.

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Why might you be wrong?

Recently, Zelensky claimed that 

Putin will die soon

This spurred a new round of speculation about Putin's health status. Does Zelensky know something the public doesn't? May he have intelligence about the Russian leader's impending demise?

Probably not. Most likely, this was just an offhand comment regarding Putin's current age.

Zelensky gave no further details and while Putin has faced questions about his health which the Kremlin has always dismissed, the Ukrainian president may have been more broadly referring to how no leader can go on indefinitely. [1]

[1] Putin 'Will Die Soon': Top 5 Takeaways From Zelensky's Big Interview

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