RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:12PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Latvia	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	2%	3%	-1%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:13PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	73%	68%	+5%	+0%
30 days	6%	6%	+0%	+0%
31-60 days	5%	6%	-1%	0%
61-90 days	5%	5%	+0%	+0%
91 days or more	11%	16%	-5%	+1%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:13PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Not before 2026	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:14PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:21PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	47%	-27%	+0%
No	80%	53%	+27%	+0%

Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:22PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	29%	-9%	+0%
No	80%	71%	+9%	+0%

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:26PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	49%	64%	-15%	+1%
No	51%	36%	+15%	-1%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:27PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	46%	-21%	-2%
No	75%	54%	+21%	+2%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 06:45PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	12%	+8%	-1%
No	80%	88%	-8%	+1%

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 07:40PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	79%	-19%	+12%
No	40%	21%	+19%	-12%

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