CVincent

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0.247803

Relative Brier Score

3

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 5 3 64
Comments 0 0 2 1 22
Questions Forecasted 0 0 5 3 20
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
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CVincent
earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Feb 2024

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
CVincent
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?

Myanmar is facing increasing pressure from ASEAN and the international community to hold the democratic elections, but the resistance in the junta seems to point to an ability to hold onto power without the democratic elections.

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Why might you be wrong?

If the junta faces internal or external pressures that cause a premature collapse it may trigger elections.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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CVincent
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
CVincent
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jan 3, 2024 05:10PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Dec 3, 2023 to Jun 3, 2024
40%
No
Dec 3, 2023 to Jun 3, 2024
Why do you think you're right?

Houthi rebels have the means, will, and ability to execute an attack against civil and military targets in the Red Sea. Being a high traffic area where it is difficult to fully monitor and prevent any attack, there is a high likelihood the rebels are able to launch an attack on at least one vessel in the next 6 months.

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Why might you be wrong?

If tensions in the region take a turn for the worse or other actors get more involved with monitoring/positioning in the region, the rebels may be under too much focus to successfully carry out an attack.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
CVincent
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
10% (0%)
Kuwait
20% (0%)
Oman
25% (0%)
Qatar
35% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
10% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
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