Maintaining
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
19
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 19 | 354 | 19 | 1500 |
| Comments | 6 | 14 | 31 | 14 | 596 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 19 | 43 | 19 | 124 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 94 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
93%
(0%)
No
Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Early days of DT administration, lots still unclear
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-1%)
Yes
60%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Small time adjustment
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Near two years remaining
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Moldova
3%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
3%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
No immediate military action in response to election meddling
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still over two years remaining
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
80%
(0%)
No
Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Holding.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Succession plans (that are increasingly being made public) are accelerated
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
15%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
63%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
20%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?
Holding until 2025 report is released
Files
Why might you be wrong?
2025 report shows outer bins where haven’t distributed
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(-1%)
Yes
77%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time, going down 1 % a month
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected announcement/ collaboration
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Inflation still high but at lowest in over two years
Why might you be wrong?
Hyper inflation