Coming in slightly lower than crowd although agree with sentiment that base rates likely to slightly underestimate the probability
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Relative Brier Score
21
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 18 | 362 | 21 | 1864 |
| Comments | 1 | 13 | 253 | 15 | 851 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 17 | 50 | 18 | 156 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 108 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
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Power Forecaster - Jan 2026
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(-2%)
Yes
82%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
47%
(-4%)
Iván Cepeda
3%
(0%)
Sergio Fajardo
47%
(+4%)
Abelardo de la Espriella
3%
(0%)
Other
Why do you think you're right?
Latest polling data, seems like Cepeda’s ceiling is 30% for first preference.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Short terms trends suggest below, but plenty of time and likely tight regardless
Why might you be wrong?
N/A as almost fence sitting