RAND Forecasting Initiative

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2025 06:45PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 4,499	96%	6%	+90%	-7%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive	4%	12%	-8%	-2%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive	0%	75%	-75%	+11%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive	0%	7%	-7%	-2%
More than or equal to 6,000	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2025 06:45PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	7%	+13%	+0%
No	80%	93%	-13%	+0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2025 06:45PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	75%	1%	+74%	+0%
No	25%	99%	-74%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2025 06:45PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	2%	+3%	+0%
No	95%	98%	-3%	+0%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2025 06:45PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	90%	10%	+80%	-23%
No	10%	90%	-80%	+23%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2025 06:45PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	1%	+49%	+0%
No	50%	99%	-49%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2025 06:47PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	5%	3%	+2%	+0%
Latvia	5%	2%	+3%	+0%
Lithuania	10%	3%	+7%	+0%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2025 06:48PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	20%	+20%	-4%
No	60%	80%	-20%	+4%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2025 06:48PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	7%	-5%	+1%
No	98%	93%	+5%	-1%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 06:05PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	10%	+40%	-30%
No	50%	90%	-40%	+30%

Elizabeth-Hoover

Elizabeth Hoover

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