125th

Accuracy Rank

JonathanMann

Jonathan Mann

About:

I'm a Security Architect in the financial sector and adjunct faculty for the computer science department in the engineering school at NYU. Previously, I worked as a Data Science Product Manager in the anti-cyber crime space and on Wall Street as a Data Scientist before that. My research is focused on novel applications for public key cryptography and training small-scale LLMs. I'm a Superforecaster, a Professional for RAND’s INFER forecasting platform, and a member of Samotsvety.

Top Forecaster - Dec 2024

Star Commenter - Dec 2025

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Forecasted Questions

Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2022 02:42PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Intel	3%	16%	-13%	-1%
Samsung	30%	53%	-23%	-4%
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)	67%	30%	+37%	+5%
Other	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the United States in 2022?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 26, 2022 01:10AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 40%	53%	51%	+2%	-1%
More than or equal to 40% but less than 50%	39%	38%	+1%	-1%
More than or equal to 50% but less than 60%	7%	10%	-3%	+2%
More than or equal to 60%	1%	1%	0%	+0%

Will the FDA approve the repurposing of a drug originally indicated for a neurodegenerative disease to also treat traumatic brain injuries by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 23, 2025 08:27PM UTC
(12 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	63%	20%	+43%	-30%
No	37%	80%	-43%	+30%

Will a shelf-stable whole blood substitute be FDA approved for human use by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 23, 2025 08:34PM UTC
(12 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	28%	6%	+22%	-44%
No	72%	94%	-22%	+44%

Will the FDA grant market approval for a brain-computer interface (BCI) with indications for use in able-bodied individuals by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 24, 2025 05:38AM UTC
(12 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	17%	6%	+11%	-16%
No	83%	94%	-11%	+16%

Will a protein of at least 400 amino acids in length be successfully produced in a laboratory setting using automated chemical synthesis and verified by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 06, 2025 07:56PM UTC
(12 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	17%	21%	-4%	+7%
No	83%	79%	+4%	-7%

Will any CBRN weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) be used by a state actor in an armed conflict by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 08, 2025 08:20PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Chemical	36%	35%	+1%	-1%
Biological	5%	8%	-3%	-4%
Radiological	2%	2%	+0%	-1%
Nuclear	4%	4%	+0%	-3%

[EXPERIMENTAL] Which of the following categories will realize the most commercial adoption of bioelectronics by 31 December 2035?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 10, 2025 08:31PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Implantable Devices	8%	15%	-7%	+0%
Environmental Sensors	76%	61%	+15%	-1%
Personal Electronics	15%	22%	-7%	+1%
Advanced Computing	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will the FDA accept an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a novel drug containing preclinical evidence generated solely from "in silico" studies by 31 December 2035?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 12, 2025 01:08AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	9%	-1%	+0%
No	92%	91%	+1%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

As of Jun 22, 2025 11:52AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 22, 2025 11:52AM UTC
(10 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	13%	Mar 22, 2025 to Mar 22, 2026	Jun 22, 2025	9%	+4%	+0%
No	87%	Mar 22, 2025 to Mar 22, 2026	Jun 22, 2025	91%	-4%	+0%