RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024)	-0.00049
Jul 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024)	0.00394
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?	-0.000325
Jun 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between May 15, 2024 and Jun 15, 2024)	-0.007268
Jun 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 6, 2024 and Jun 6, 2024)	0.003948
Jun 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 6, 2024 and Jun 6, 2024)	-0.0006
May 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 15, 2024 and May 15, 2024)	-0.0036
May 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 6, 2024 and May 6, 2024)	0.00064
May 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 6, 2024 and May 6, 2024)	-0.00012
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	-0.000002
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024)	-0.04494
Apr 02, 2024 03:00PM UTC	Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?	-0.000575
Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2023 and Mar 22, 2024)	0.000075
Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Mar 18, 2024)	-0.723722
Mar 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 15, 2024 and Mar 15, 2024)	-0.003476
Mar 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024)	0.001831
Mar 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024)	-0.000838
Feb 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 15, 2024 and Feb 15, 2024)	0.044084
Feb 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024)	-0.000474
Feb 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024)	0.001039

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