Confirmed previous forecast
-0.060853
Relative Brier Score
121
Forecasts
11
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 8 | 121 | 121 | 707 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 60 | 60 | 95 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 105 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 51 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
81%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
9%
(0%)
30 days
4%
(0%)
31-60 days
1%
(0%)
61-90 days
5%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2027
98%
(0%)
No
Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
44%
(-7%)
Yes
56%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Update for time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Update with time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files