253rd
Accuracy Rank

Newton

Isaac Newton
About:
Show more
Forecasted Questions

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 6, 2025 to Apr 6, 2027 Jan 6, 2026 6%
No 100% Oct 6, 2025 to Apr 6, 2027 Jan 6, 2026 94%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 18%
No 100% 83%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 3%
No 100% 97%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications 0% 3%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP 100% 96%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP 0% 2%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 3%
Latvia 0% 2%
Lithuania 0% 3%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 0% 6%
Armenia 0% 2%
Georgia 0% 3%
Kazakhstan 0% 1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Togo 0% 4%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations Answer was correct

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 7%
No 100% 93%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 0% 0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 0% 0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 0% 0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 0% 2%
Not before 2026 100% 98%
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username