RAND Forecasting Initiative

How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 22, 2021 05:29PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $13 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $25 billion		Answer was correct

How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 22, 2021 06:45PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 70,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 130,000		Answer was correct

What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 22, 2022 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 17, 2022 02:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 33.0		Answer was incorrect
Between 33.0 and 35.5, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 35.5 but less than 36.5		Answer was correct
Between 36.5 and 39.0, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 39.0		Answer was incorrect

Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 24, 2022 01:40PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2022 06:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before January 1, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022		Answer was correct
Between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Not before October 1, 2022		Answer was incorrect

What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2022 02:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $3000		Answer was correct
More than or equal to $3000 but less than $3500		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $3500 but less than $4000		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $4000		Answer was incorrect

On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 30, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 07, 2022 06:24PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 200 million		Answer was incorrect
More than 200 million but less than 250 million		Answer was incorrect
Between 250 million and 300 million, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 300 million		Answer was correct

How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2022 09:24PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $17 billion		Answer was correct
More than or equal to $17 billion but less than $18 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $18 billion but less than $19 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $19 billion		Answer was incorrect

Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?

As of Sep 11, 2022 08:14PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 11, 2022 08:14PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?

You quit this question on Jan 26, 2023 02:14PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2022 07:14PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 200		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 1000		Answer was incorrect

Nonrival

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