NukePirate

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Feb 11, 2026 05:00PM UTC How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025? -0.035292
Jan 09, 2026 05:00PM UTC Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025? -0.000904
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026? 0.078171
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025? -0.000483
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? 0.025802
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025? 0.28649
Aug 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres? 0.418293
Aug 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 4, 2025 and Aug 4, 2025) 0.0166
Aug 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2025 and Aug 2, 2025) -0.00061
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025? -0.019411
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? 0.038112
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025? -0.017993
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025? -0.00049
Jul 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 28, 2025 and Jul 28, 2025) -0.000187
Jul 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 4, 2025 and Jul 4, 2025) 0.015603
Jul 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 2, 2025 and Jul 2, 2025) -0.0001
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? 0.00239
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? 0.139905
Jun 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 28, 2025 and Jun 28, 2025) -0.0002
Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM UTC Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer? 0.212613
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