Confirmed previous forecast
-0.006385
Relative Brier Score
240
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 11 | 267 | 240 | 1936 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 119 | 116 | 234 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 11 | 38 | 32 | 158 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 37 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Dropping to 0. Time is running out, and I have a strong feeling Europe would not send forces for christmas season.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
2%
(0%)
30 days
6%
(0%)
31-60 days
6%
(0%)
61-90 days
20%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 6, 2025 to May 6, 2027
93%
(0%)
No
Nov 6, 2025 to May 6, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
keeping forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Oct 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).