PeruforecastSacredvalley

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Relative Brier Score

8

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 8 250 8 952
Comments 0 2 66 2 417
Questions Forecasted 0 7 40 7 82
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 34 0 288
 Definitions
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Jan 22, 2025 to Jul 22, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Jan 22, 2025 to Jul 22, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

The Ceasefire around gaza Strip may not be a signal for this situation to materialize in agreements establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel , at least in a short term.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

lack of constant follow-up

Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Jan 9, 2025 to Jul 9, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Jan 9, 2025 to Jul 9, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45% (0%)
Yes
Jan 9, 2025 to Jan 9, 2026
55% (0%)
No
Jan 9, 2025 to Jan 9, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50% (0%)
Yes
Jan 9, 2025 to Jan 9, 2026
50% (0%)
No
Jan 9, 2025 to Jan 9, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100% (+1%)
Yes
0% (-1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

civilians armed with ak 47s, by the actual regime.

the international warrant for Maduro still bellow 100M

opposition figures kidnapped relatives.

time

Files
Why might you be wrong?

sudden events that might transform the scenario

Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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PeruforecastSacredvalley
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 4, 2025 11:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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