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Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 8 | 250 | 8 | 952 |
Comments | 0 | 2 | 66 | 2 | 417 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 7 | 40 | 7 | 82 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 288 |
Definitions |

New Prediction

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 9, 2025 to Jul 9, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Jan 9, 2025 to Jul 9, 2025
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 9, 2025 to Jan 9, 2026
55%
(0%)
No
Jan 9, 2025 to Jan 9, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 9, 2025 to Jan 9, 2026
50%
(0%)
No
Jan 9, 2025 to Jan 9, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Yes
0%
(-1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
civilians armed with ak 47s, by the actual regime.
the international warrant for Maduro still bellow 100M
opposition figures kidnapped relatives.
time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
sudden events that might transform the scenario
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 4, 2025 11:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The Ceasefire around gaza Strip may not be a signal for this situation to materialize in agreements establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel , at least in a short term.
Why might you be wrong?
lack of constant follow-up