RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026?

You quit this question on Jan 12, 2026 02:21PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 02:21PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	15%	-13%	-5%
No	98%	85%	+13%	+5%

Will Delcy Rodríguez be President of Venezuela on 30 April 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 30, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 10, 2026 11:01AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	95%	94%	+1%	+2%
No	5%	6%	-1%	-2%

Will North Korea conduct a missile test between 1 February 2026 and 31 March 2026, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 10, 2026 11:15AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	95%	92%	+3%	-1%
No	5%	8%	-3%	+1%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 10, 2026 11:16AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
No	96%	96%	+0%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 10, 2026 11:18AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	40%	33%	+7%	+0%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	40%	45%	-5%	+0%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	17%	17%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
More than or equal to $800 million	0%	1%	-1%	0%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 10, 2026 11:38AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
U.S. Entity	85%	85%	+0%	0%
Non-U.S. Entity	45%	55%	-10%	+0%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 10, 2026 11:39AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
112 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 10, 2026 11:40AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	3%	5%	-2%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Georgia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 10, 2026 11:40AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 10, 2026 11:40AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	14%	-4%	+0%
No	90%	86%	+4%	+0%

PeterStamp

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