Forecasted Questions
Will any CBRN weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) be used by a state actor in an armed conflict by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 07, 2025 02:20PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Feb 07, 2025 02:20PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chemical | 1% | 35% | -34% | -7% |
| Biological | 1% | 8% | -7% | -5% |
| Radiological | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
| Nuclear | 0% | 4% | -4% | -4% |
Will the FDA approve the repurposing of a drug originally indicated for a neurodegenerative disease to also treat traumatic brain injuries by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 08, 2025 01:33PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Feb 08, 2025 01:33PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | 20% | -7% | -1% |
| No | 87% | 80% | +7% | +1% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
As of Jun 26, 2025 11:06AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts
20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months ago)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 26, 2025 11:06AM UTC
(8 months ago)
Mar 26, 2025 11:06AM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | Mar 26, 2025 to Mar 26, 2026 | Jun 26, 2025 | 9% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 94% | Mar 26, 2025 to Mar 26, 2026 | Jun 26, 2025 | 91% | +3% | +0% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts
24 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2025 12:14PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 31, 2025 12:14PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 0% | 1% | -1% | -2% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 15% | 24% | -9% | -3% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 75% | 65% | +10% | +5% |
| More than or equal to 80 | 10% | 9% | +1% | +0% |