Updating with the crowd
-0.547986
Relative Brier Score
462
Forecasts
55
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 36 | 462 | 462 | 462 |
| Comments | 3 | 22 | 364 | 364 | 364 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 30 | 65 | 65 | 65 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Same as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(-2%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(+2%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
updating time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Christmas ceasefire?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Estonia
3%
(0%)
Latvia
6%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 7, 2025 to May 7, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Nov 7, 2025 to May 7, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 7, 2025 to May 7, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 7, 2025 to May 7, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-5%)
Yes
96%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating based on report that RSF has agreed to a ceasefire proposal https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c74070y9e3go - even if it doesn't go into effect or doesn't hold for a long time, given the short timeline of the question I think it's another point towards no
Files
Why might you be wrong?
RSF could be bluffing and using the supposed ceasefire to mobilize for an assault on Khartoum
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(-24%)
Yes
82%
(+24%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating, less than two months left
Files
Why might you be wrong?
EU support for Ukraine is still strong, maybe something is announced to strengthen Ukraine before winter sets in
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Updating to account for days left in the calendar year
Why might you be wrong?
Surprise early Christmas ceasefire