Wooster

About:

Manager @ Cultivate Labs, bringing crowd forecasting to clients in finance, government, and the corporate world. Background in hedge fund investing at one of the big Canadian pension plans.

You can find me forecasting as Wooster on RANGE and Ziewert on GJO, the other public forecasting platforms powered by Cultivate Labs:

https://www.rangeforecasting.org/forecaster/Wooster
https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/Ziewert

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Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 2, 2024 and Oct 2, 2024)	0.00018
Oct 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC	Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 29, 2024 and Oct 1, 2024)	0.008345
Sep 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 15, 2024 and Sep 15, 2024)	-0.002548
Sep 14, 2024 07:00PM UTC	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 14, 2024 and Sep 14, 2024)	0.010762
Sep 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 2, 2024 and Sep 2, 2024)	0.000032
Aug 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 15, 2024 and Aug 15, 2024)	-0.000042
Jul 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 15, 2024 and Jul 15, 2024)	-0.001773
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC	From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?	-0.024143
Jun 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between May 15, 2024 and Jun 15, 2024)	-0.000368
May 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 15, 2024 and May 15, 2024)	0.0
Apr 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 15, 2024 and Apr 15, 2024)	0.0
Mar 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 15, 2024 and Mar 15, 2024)	0.022593
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	0.000967
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?	0.005592
Feb 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 15, 2024 and Feb 15, 2024)	0.017084
Jan 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 15, 2023 and Jan 15, 2024)	0.03691
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	-0.149317
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?	0.051355
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?	-0.031889
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC	What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?	-0.131075