Forecasted Questions
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:09AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:09AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 3% | +17% | +2% |
| No | 80% | 97% | -17% | -2% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:11AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:11AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 97% | 97% | +0% | +1% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:12AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:12AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 11% | -1% | -3% |
| No | 90% | 89% | +1% | +3% |
Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:16AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:16AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 28% | -23% | +23% |
| No | 95% | 72% | +23% | -23% |
Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:23AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:23AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 64% | -14% | -2% |
| No | 50% | 37% | +14% | +2% |
Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:24AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:24AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 79% | -9% | +12% |
| No | 30% | 21% | +9% | -12% |
How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:26AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:26AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 18 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| 17 | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| 16 or fewer | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |