169th
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Yifan

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined? -0.017274
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Which country will have published the second most "high impact" journal articles on artificial intelligence in 2022? -0.013556
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? -0.02453
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? 0.016132
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) -0.000211
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? 0.002908
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023? 0.002204
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China? 0.034351
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? -0.000183
Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM UTC How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023? 0.264661
Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023? -0.245758
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? 0.006433
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035? 0.031999
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023? -0.000111
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.002417
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.047956
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO? -0.000038
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.002463
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022? 0.168922
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM UTC In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022) 0.211498
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