RAND Forecasting Initiative

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 19, 2021 10:15PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 59%		Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%		Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%		Answer was correct
More than 80%		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2021 05:41PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2021 05:41PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2021 05:41PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2021 03:48PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2021 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2021 09:09PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2021 09:37PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
0-10%		Answer was incorrect
10-20%		Answer was incorrect
20-30%		Answer was incorrect
30-40%		Answer was correct
40-50%		Answer was incorrect
50-60%		Answer was incorrect
60-70%		Answer was incorrect
70-80%		Answer was incorrect
80-90%		Answer was incorrect
90-100%		Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 16, 2021 05:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 14, 2021 12:05AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $400 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion		Answer was correct
More than $775 billion		Answer was incorrect

Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 05:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2021 06:09PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?

As of Dec 29, 2021 06:13PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2021 06:13PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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