This seems very unlikely given the technology’s invasiveness and nascent stage in research. 2030 is too early for approval in able bodied individuals
-0.091663
Relative Brier Score
25
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 24 | 267 | 25 | 816 |
Comments | 0 | 16 | 48 | 17 | 225 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 23 | 58 | 24 | 176 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 25 |
Definitions |



Power Forecaster - Jan 2025



Star Commenter - Jan 2025


Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
Musk’s influence on regulatory process speed is still undetermined

Why do you think you're right?
Due to the long regulatory process of fda and nascent research into blood alternatives, this seems extremely unlikely by 2030
Why might you be wrong?
It’s enough of a holy grail and huge demand that it could get expedited by us administrations that want the credit when the technology gets good enough. AI could also speed research into viable technologies

Why do you think you're right?
Putin still has absolute power and they stockpiled resources for their invasion so their economy is still doing relatively well
Why might you be wrong?
Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and less western demand, along with a weakening Iran and China may mean more unrest in russia

Why do you think you're right?
It’s very unlikely anything other than chemical weapons will be used. Russia and Sudan to me are the only state actors close to using chemical weapons currently. However, many state actors have used chemical weapons in the past and with a resolution date of 2030, I believe this is more likely to happen than not.
Why might you be wrong?
No one needs to use chemical weapons. They can be fickle and are looked upon as wmds by the international community, so it’s very possible no one uses them


Why do you think you're right?
This seems more and more like this was an announcement to shore up Maduro’s support before the election. There is 0 economic sense to invading
Why might you be wrong?
Who knows what a dictator will do
Why do you think you're right?
After listening to the live call and doing my own research I believe 2030 is too soon for the resolution criteria to be achieved. We haven’t seen new public advances since 2020 and 5 years is a short timeframe for what we’re talking about. 400 is a high mark when each step gives so many opportunities for impurity or failure
Why might you be wrong?
Industry is pumping a lot of money into this and technological advancements in robotics and AI could speed up the timeline greatly