30th
Accuracy Rank

coastbylight

About:
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 24 267 25 816
Comments 0 16 48 17 225
Questions Forecasted 0 23 58 24 176
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 2 3 2 25
 Definitions
New Badge
coastbylight
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Jan 2025

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
coastbylight
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Jan 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

After listening to the live call and doing my own research I believe 2030 is too soon for the resolution criteria to be achieved. We haven’t seen new public advances since 2020 and 5 years is a short timeframe for what we’re talking about. 400 is a high mark when each step gives so many opportunities for impurity or failure 

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Why might you be wrong?

Industry is pumping a lot of money into this and technological advancements in robotics and AI could speed up the timeline greatly

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New Badge
coastbylight
earned a new badge:

Questions Forecasted

For forecasting in 175 questions!
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

This seems very unlikely given the technology’s invasiveness and nascent stage in research. 2030 is too early for approval in able bodied individuals

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Why might you be wrong?

Musk’s influence on regulatory process speed is still undetermined

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Due to the long regulatory process of fda and nascent research into blood alternatives, this seems extremely unlikely by 2030

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Why might you be wrong?

It’s enough of a holy grail and huge demand that it could get expedited by us administrations that want the credit when the technology gets good enough. AI could also speed research into viable technologies

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Putin still has absolute power and they stockpiled resources for their invasion so their economy is still doing relatively well

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Why might you be wrong?

Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and less western demand, along with a weakening Iran and China may mean more unrest in russia

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

It’s very unlikely anything other than chemical weapons will be used. Russia and Sudan to me are the only state actors close to using chemical weapons currently. However, many state actors have used chemical weapons in the past and with a resolution date of 2030, I believe this is more likely to happen than not. 

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Why might you be wrong?

No one needs to use chemical weapons. They can be fickle and are looked upon as wmds by the international community, so it’s very possible no one uses them

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New Prediction
coastbylight
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Estonia
0% (0%)
Latvia
0% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
coastbylight
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (-1%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
0% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Why do you think you're right?

This seems more and more like this was an announcement to shore up Maduro’s support before the election. There is 0 economic sense to invading

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Why might you be wrong?

Who knows what a dictator will do

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