Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 5 | 141 | 10 | 1082 |
| Comments | 2 | 2 | 107 | 7 | 558 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 281 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 82 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(0%)
Yes
55%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The base historical rate for a sanction against these countries is essentially zero. Trump has shown he is very willing to place trade barriers, but he has seemed friendly with these nations as well so it is currently unlikely without a trigger of some sort (even a small slight towards the US) and even then it will start as talk and likely be more than half a year before an actual announcement/action.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I am not as sure about EU and China but I assume EU follows the US for the most part and is also reliant on oil.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-4%)
Yes
97%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time with no obvious movement on this according to the news, and taking into considerations @geoffodlum deep dive
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I haven’t been following news that may be related to this closely and also it may not appear until last minute (especially if there is an adjustment of some existing agreement that gets classified as new).
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
My first instinct is this seems relatively likely, especially with the advancements in AI for coding in recent months. However reading about all the criteria for this to count including the substantial/obvious use of AI and substantial harm indicator, indicates the base rate is essentially zero. So a few percent chance with a combination of instinct and historical incidence.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There’s a first time for everything and AI can be used in a lot more ways than it has been previously
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Coming to this question late but at this point with only a month remaining and the capital relatively stable at the moment it seems unlikely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Attacks such as this are unpredictable but it does seem like there will be a bit more build up to them actually capturing it if so.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Current international geopolitical tensions make this seem incredibly likely. This is further verified by others’ research on the base rate related to defense procurements for the Russia-Ukraine war (1.3-3ish more expected). While there have already been quite a few countries to sign such contracts and therefore less left to do so, I think there are at least two more. While US pressure to purchase Greenland doesn’t directly mean there will be more such defense contracts it certainly could play a role in encouraging any countries that are hesitant (just because of the message it sends about the potential future need to defend oneself).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The exact number is a gut instinct based on the rationale above so it could be off. It’s also generally possible I am overestimating the rest of the EU’s willingness to spend or the timeline, or contracts coming from different sources…
Files