fionack

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Forecasts 5 5 141 10 1082
Comments 2 2 107 7 558
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The base historical rate for a sanction against these countries is essentially zero. Trump has shown he is very willing to place trade barriers, but he has seemed friendly with these nations as well so it is currently unlikely without a trigger of some sort (even a small slight towards the US) and even then it will start as talk and likely be more than half a year before an actual announcement/action. 

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Why might you be wrong?

I am not as sure about EU and China but I assume EU follows the US for the most part and is also reliant on oil. 

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Passage of time with no obvious movement on this according to the news, and taking into considerations @geoffodlum deep dive 

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Why might you be wrong?
I haven’t been following news that may be related to this closely and also it may not appear until last minute (especially if there is an adjustment of some existing agreement that gets classified as new). 
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Star Commenter - Jan 2026

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

My first instinct is this seems relatively likely, especially with the advancements in AI for coding in recent months. However reading about all the criteria for this to count including the substantial/obvious use of AI and substantial harm indicator, indicates the base rate is essentially zero. So a few percent chance with a combination of instinct and historical incidence. 

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Why might you be wrong?

There’s a first time for everything and AI can be used in a lot more ways than it has been previously 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Coming to this question late but at this point with only a month remaining and the capital relatively stable at the moment it seems unlikely. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Attacks such as this are unpredictable but it does seem like there will be a bit more build up to them actually capturing it if so. 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Current international geopolitical tensions make this seem incredibly likely. This is further verified by others’ research on the base rate related to defense procurements for the Russia-Ukraine war (1.3-3ish more expected). While there have already been quite a few countries to sign such contracts and therefore less left to do so, I think there are at least two more. While US pressure to purchase Greenland doesn’t directly mean there will be more such defense contracts it certainly could play a role in encouraging any countries that are hesitant (just because of the message it sends about the potential future need to defend oneself). 

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Why might you be wrong?

The exact number is a gut instinct based on the rationale above so it could be off. It’s also generally possible I am overestimating the rest of the EU’s willingness to spend or the timeline, or contracts coming from different sources…

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