Update based on @DKC - elections are scheduled for well past this date.
-0.207533
Relative Brier Score
18
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 214 | 18 | 948 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 24 | 17 | 458 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 66 | 16 | 246 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 77 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Feb 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could they be moved up?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
7%
(-10%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
26%
(-19%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
51%
(+16%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
15%
(+13%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
Updating upward even further based on latest number putting it at 78. It seems to me that the war ending will not necessarily decrease the perceived threat but maybe even increase it since the perception may be „Russia can invade neighboring countries and gain territory/get away with it“ (even if they suffered a lot of losses). Also the relationship with the US is deteriorating though German elections could change this. It currently looks like the conservative CDU is leading over the SPD that currently hold power but with the AfD in second (Vance recently showed support for the far right AfD): https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GERMANY-ELECTION/POLLS/akveedlravr/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the far right movement in Germany is successful then the relationship with the US may be strengthened under Trump and therefore the perceived risk could decrease (though how the public as a whole would react is unclear). Also a lot of the far right rhetoric is around fear of outsiders and increasing defense so it still could have the same effects I am predicting above.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-4%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
5%
(-5%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Decreasing with passage of time and for now thinking the Trump/Putin relationship could decrease the chances of this though I could also see it going the other way, especially if the war in Ukraine ends (frees up Russian resources) and even more so if it ends with Russia having gained territory. However, my sense for now is that Russia would take longer to invade another country shortly after ending the war with Ukraine (if it does ends soon).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The time horizon is still quite long and Trump’s actions could just as easily (perhaps moreso) encourage Russia to invade others.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-20%)
Yes
95%
(+20%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Decreasing significantly with passage of time and getting closer to resolution.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
My original reasoning and the increased activity and push towards this (though not that recently) could mean it can still happen
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
57%
(0%)
Yes
43%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast though I am above the crowd, there is still some time and it seems to align with their interests and goals. Not sure if less USAID activity in the region may affect this (would there be a reason for the gap to be filled with China military bases or just with funding?)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China already has bases and may be focused on other projects/interests
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I initially wanted to go higher on this because of COVID and a repeat of something similar not seeming that out of reach; however, COVID doesn’t even seem to count because it wasn’t officially a lab leak? Therefore, staying low since it’s unclear to me whether this has happened. Even if there are bad actors that attempt this it would be extremely unprecedented and even then perhaps not far reaching or advertised widely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps decreased funding for health research in the US also means less safety regulations and some accident occurring but I don’t see that happening.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Angola
3%
(0%)
Kenya
25%
(0%)
Ethiopia
5%
(0%)
Nigeria
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(-25%)
Chemical
3%
(0%)
Biological
1%
(0%)
Radiological
2%
(0%)
Nuclear
Why do you think you're right?
Moving closer to the crowd due to the clarification…
Files
Why might you be wrong?
5 years is a decent amount of time and if something drastic happens it would be hard to predict.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Decreasing due to drops in value and passage of time
Why might you be wrong?
There could be a comeback or increase in optimism due to AI and Apple hasn’t had any too impressive releases lately…