Decreasing slightly with passage of time though there are still months left
0.522466
Relative Brier Score
142
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 9 | 141 | 142 | 1072 |
| Comments | 0 | 6 | 109 | 110 | 551 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 9 | 58 | 59 | 277 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 81 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-3%)
Yes
93%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
May be missing key information though it seems unlikely they wouldn’t publicize any promising talks around this
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Based on historical trends and time left for the question, it seems unlikely this will change.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe I missing some key pieces of news but it seems impossible for there to be a huge fluctuation from the current trends
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time, end of year
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe should round down to zero given less than two weeks left
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
We are nearly at the close of this question and everyone is on holiday in Europe
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Black swan event
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-19%)
Yes
99%
(+19%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Based on this closing end of year and most of Europe on holiday, it seems impossible. Maintaining 1% for black swan event
Files
Why might you be wrong?
See above
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 22, 2025 to Jun 22, 2027
90%
(0%)
No
Dec 22, 2025 to Jun 22, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
My initial gut reaction is they will do all they can to maintain growth (or the appearance thereof). However, close to 5% may look good enough that it won’t need to be 5% or higher. Therefore I am going to go with most third party estimates (e.g., Goldman Sachs) even though the ones I’m seeing are US based.
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps I should trust the predictions more and go higher on no, but it’s close…