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fionack

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022) 0.174465
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? -0.040256
Mar 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Mar 17, 2022) -0.028404
Mar 16, 2022 04:00PM UTC In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial? -0.064958
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021? 0.199499
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.282194
Feb 24, 2022 03:00PM UTC What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022? -0.03746
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) 0.019823
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021) 0.041733
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? -0.131191
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? -0.024799
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM UTC How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.033366
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021 -0.00658
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM UTC How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021 -0.00057
Jan 31, 2022 02:49PM UTC How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.06542
Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM UTC How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.029885
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.0049
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.000106
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.000581
Jan 04, 2022 01:22PM UTC How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.081374
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