37th
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heim

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jun 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 6, 2024 and Jun 6, 2024) 0.002148
Jun 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2024 and Jun 2, 2024) 0.001955
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.046185
May 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 6, 2024 and May 6, 2024) 0.00028
May 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2024 and May 2, 2024) 0.0018
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.000318
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024) -0.004445
Apr 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024) 0.001123
Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024) -0.000058
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024? 0.000484
Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2023 and Mar 22, 2024) 0.000062
Mar 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024) 0.001121
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election? -0.000113
Mar 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024) 0.0
Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 26, 2024 and Feb 26, 2024) -0.033139
Feb 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024) 0.002445
Feb 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Feb 2, 2024) 0.0
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive? -0.011414
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