henrytolchard

Henry Tolchard
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Relative Brier Score

5

Forecasts

0

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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 4 20 5 238
Comments 0 3 5 4 73
Questions Forecasted 0 4 9 5 36
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 55
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Chemical weapons seemed to be used by state actors with some frequency, including in the current Ukraine-Russia War. The other weapon types, especially nuclear, seem to have large costs on the actor that uses them (bio and radiological have containment issues for use in a war, and breaking the nuclear taboo seems like it would invite backlash)

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Why might you be wrong?

New conflicts may emerge that make the use of biological, radiological, or nuclear weapons more likely. Additionally, use of chemical weapons in the future may be unattributable to a particular state

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New Prediction
henrytolchard
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
10%
Less than or equal to 59
40%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
30%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
16%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
4%
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?

I think there's a lot more uncertainty here than the crowd is giving it credit for, giving that the current count is only 23

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Why might you be wrong?

I'm not high on any category, so I'll be "wrong" for most outcomes

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Time

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Why might you be wrong?

Time

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New Prediction
henrytolchard
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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henrytolchard
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
henrytolchard
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Jan 3, 2025 to Jan 3, 2026
95%
No
Jan 3, 2025 to Jan 3, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

I don't see a clear plausible scenario for this. If they want to escalate their involvement in a conflict or begin a new military intervention they will likely do so through proxies as they have done in the past.

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Why might you be wrong?

The situation in Syria is volatile enough to warrant some humility in this forecast

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henrytolchard
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

I broadly agree with @MrLittleTexas's take that the debt:GDP ratio is an important metric for determining the likelihood of default. Argentina's is lower when they defaulted, and the IMF projects a further decline in the future.


Bolivia has a similar debt:GDP ratio, but the IMF is forecasting that theirs will increase to above 100% within the forecast window. Still, I think that the probability of default is low (but potentially much higher in 2026).


Ecuador's is even lower, and I'll adjust my forecast accordingly, but as I am less familiar with the government efforts to reduce likelihood of default there I will nudge my forecast closer to 50%.


I'm also increasing all of these probabilities due to some analysis such as the kind found here by S&P, warning that sovereign defaults will grow more likely in the future.

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New Prediction

Time

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New Prediction
henrytolchard
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-3%)
Yes
100% (+3%)
No

Time

Files
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