henrytolchard

Henry Tolchard
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Analyst at Cultivate Labs

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025? -0.012358
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? -0.003384
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? -0.011743
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? -0.006022
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election? 0.06869
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? 0.001244
Jan 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 15, 2023 and Jan 15, 2024) 0.010658
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