Changing my forecast due to consider of lower probability the construction of another facility
-0.006577
Relative Brier Score
22
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 38 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-10%)
Yes
85%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Geopolitical sudden changes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Quite likely if we take into consideration new EU policies related to strengthening their Army Forces
Why might you be wrong?