Dictators never relinquish power.
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 54 | 1059 | 86 | 4878 |
| Comments | 3 | 5 | 115 | 5 | 218 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 24 | 77 | 24 | 187 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 175 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
Yes
2%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
All I can see is a sever health or death issue
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
Yes
91%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Seasonal cycle favors additional growth into late February or early March. Given typical late-winter dynamics, March daily values are likely to remain above last year’s monthly mean for much of the month, making a new record low increasingly unlikely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This estimate could prove too low if late February or early March brings an unusually weak seasonal peak followed by rapid early-March decline.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Less than 8
30%
Between 8 and 11, inclusive
20%
Between 12 and 15, inclusive
0%
Between 16 and 19, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 20
Why do you think you're right?
The recent trend has been relatively low
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
Yes
7%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Full unconditional cooperation goes a long way with Trump ...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Internal resistance may be able to organize a coup
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
5%
No
Why do you think you're right?
NK has launched on average 1 every month and this year is off to a busy start ...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
0
10%
1
0%
2 or more
Why do you think you're right?
For now I will go with the base rate, which about 10%, specially due to June and July contributions. I hope to look into this question in the following days
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
68%
Yes
32%
No
Why do you think you're right?
This could certainly happen as China may want to keep pressure on Taiwan and/or send some special message to the US. In the past, similar actions by China had no harmful consequence, other than some sterile protest statements. This history suggests that there is no down side for China to keep exerting pressure.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I think that unless something huge happens, China will not move on Taiwan before Trump's visit (perhaps in april). Depending on the meeting outcome China may pause its actions on Taiwan long enough past this question's deadline.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Less than $1 billion
7%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(-2%)
Yes
82%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The €2.4B boundary sits almost exactly at the lower edge of modeled outcomes. That makes the forecast highly sensitive to small execution deviations. A modest combination of factors could push net income into the €2.2–2.3B range without implying any structural weakness.
Why might you be wrong?
ASML revenue recognition is lumpy: a few delayed EUV acceptances can shift several hundred million euros between quarters. Given that Q4 2025 was unusually strong (€2.84B net income), reversion toward typical Q1 seasonality may be more pronounced than expected.