Forecasted Questions
How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 24, 2021 10:22PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Dec 24, 2021 10:22PM UTC
(3 years ago)
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 24, 2021 10:27PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Dec 24, 2021 10:27PM UTC
(3 years ago)
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 20, 2022 11:37PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Feb 20, 2022 11:37PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 14% | 6% | 3% | +3% | -3% |
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 30% | 12% | +18% | -5% |
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 36% | 31% | +5% | -1% |
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 20% | 40% | -20% | +8% |
More than 20% | 8% | 14% | -6% | +1% |