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olavo_sg

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Top Forecaster of the Month - Dec 2023

Top Forecaster of the Month - Nov 2023

Power Forecaster - Oct 2025

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Forecasted Questions

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 23, 2025 11:55PM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:08AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	36%	+4%	-16%
No	60%	64%	-4%	+16%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:28AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	45%	+15%	+7%
No	40%	55%	-15%	-7%

Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:29AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	28%	+7%	-3%
No	65%	72%	-7%	+3%

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:40AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	63%	+7%	+4%
No	30%	37%	-7%	-4%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 25, 2025 02:54AM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	12%	24%	-12%	+13%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	43%	43%	+0%	+20%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	30%	25%	+5%	-8%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	10%	6%	+4%	-14%
More than or equal to $800 million	5%	2%	+3%	-11%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 25, 2025 03:13AM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	36%	37%	-1%	+33%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million	41%	34%	+7%	+28%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million	10%	20%	-10%	-15%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million	8%	7%	+1%	-21%
More than or equal to $650 million	5%	2%	+3%	-24%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 25, 2025 11:16PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	30%	72%	-42%	+58%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	25%	22%	+3%	-7%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	25%	5%	+20%	-27%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	12%	1%	+11%	-18%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	8%	0%	+8%	-6%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2025 01:32PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	5%	-3%	-5%
No	98%	95%	+3%	+5%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 01:18AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	19%	+6%	-5%
No	75%	81%	-6%	+5%