RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 12:08AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	13%	3%	+10%	+2%
No	87%	97%	-10%	-2%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:11AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	3%	+1%	-1%
No	96%	97%	-1%	+1%

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:18AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
19	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
18	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
17	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
16 or fewer	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:59AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	12%	-2%	-2%
No	90%	88%	+2%	+2%

Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:04AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	13%	21%	-8%	+0%
No	87%	79%	+8%	+0%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:13AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	20%	-10%	-1%
No	90%	80%	+10%	+1%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:16AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	71%	84%	-13%	+3%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	20%	11%	+9%	-2%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	6%	3%	+3%	-1%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	1%	0%	+1%	+0%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:20AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	37%	55%	-18%	-3%
No	63%	45%	+18%	+3%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:24AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	7%	3%	+5%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	89%	96%	-7%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	4%	2%	+2%	+0%

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:42AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	59%	65%	-6%	+0%
No	41%	35%	+6%	+0%

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