sepeskoe

There are many candidate uses for LLM-assisted medical devices, but there still isn't a process for FDA to approve such devices.  Too many unknowns about the specific requirements for proof of efficacy and safety, and for testing.  These will eventually be worked out, but not within the forecasting window.

Peace negotiations are still underway, but focusing on the Donbas and EU/US assurance of security for Ukraine.  I don't think new armaments are on the table this week, so with 7 days to go in the forecasting window, and seeing that this is a holiday season for all involved, I don't think we'll see a commitment for rocket launchers within the next week.

Per US DoD, China is amassing forces in preparation for a blockade or attack of Taiwan, but it won't happen in this forecasting window.  In another 6 months? maybe.  But Trump's agreement to drop the tariffs on chips and allowing China to purchase NVIDIA AI-useful chips might keep the PLA at bay for at least the next 18 months (the duration of the current tariff / trade agreement between Trump and Xi).

Just reinforcing my forecast so far.  Trump's peace plan, which requires Ukraine to cede lands currently controlled by Russia, is a non-starter in Ukraine.  That's only one of the dozen of non-starters in the "plan" that Trump offered.  Russia has made it clear they are willing to keep fighting if Ukraine won't agree to the terms that they fed to Trump.  There's not nearly enough time left in this calendar year for the two sides to come to any agreement -- and Russia is happy to keep sending drones and launching missiles into Kyiv.  No peace for quite a while.

Confirming prior forecasts.  Israel is too toxic for any Muslim country right now.  Even though there is a cease fire in effect, people are still dying because Israel is still responding to any stimulus from Hamas with military action.  No Muslim country is going to be the first until the situations in Gaza and the West Bank resolve with some terms that are acceptable to both Netanyahu and his cronies and Hamas and their supporters in Iran.  It's hard to imagine what those terms would be.

I'm coming late to this question.  I had noted Trump's claim to have brought peace to this region by mediating an agreement between Thailand and Cambodia.  It looked to be a very tenuous peace accord. After the July ceasefire, minor skirmishes in November escalated into major fighting in early December, centered around disputed border areas. Now, heavy artillery, rockets (like Cambodia's BM-21s), and airstrikes are being used, damaging homes and forcing massive evacuations.  Now both sides have faulted each other with claims that the other has failed to meet the terms of the July and October truces.

As of 9 December, the body count was 12 per Al Jazeera.  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/12/9/thailand-cambodia-live

(Note: this Al Jazeera article also gives a status of the other 7 or 8 conflicts that Trump has claimed to have resolved through his personal involvement.)

The FDA is still working on regulatory guidelines for LLM-based medical devices.  I don't think the guidelines will be completed enough before 31 March '26 for any manufacturer to establish conformity with these guidelines that will enable FDA approval within the forecasting window.  Normally it takes at least 6 months for FDA approval even for Priority reviews, and I'd expect the FDA to take much longer for the first applications under the new guidelines.

I didn't do an exhaustive search, but I don't think there are any LLM-based equipment proposals already in the queue, so there just isn't sufficient time to get approval in the window.

https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/fda-ai-medical-device-tracker