5th
Accuracy Rank

sigis

Sigitas Keras
About:

Retired quant/trader

Show more
View All Badges »
Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025? -0.001014
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.0
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 15, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.022294
Jul 24, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025? -0.001344
Jul 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.022154
Jul 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.0
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? 0.000014
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? -0.000073
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? -0.003262
Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM UTC Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer? -0.000347
Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025) 0.0556
Jun 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 4, 2025 and Jun 4, 2025) -0.003252
Jun 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 4, 2025 and Jun 4, 2025) -0.000861
Jun 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2025 and Jun 2, 2025) 0.0
May 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? 0.055722
May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025) -0.000173
Apr 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 28, 2025 and Apr 28, 2025) -0.000397
Apr 28, 2025 01:00PM UTC Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025? -0.009179
Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025) -0.006381
Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025) 0.000542
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel