5th
Accuracy Rank

sigis

Sigitas Keras
About:

Retired quant/trader

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All Time Stats

-0.557106

Relative Brier Score

582

Forecasts

19

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 17 565 517 582
Comments 0 0 16 11 16
Questions Forecasted 0 16 75 59 79
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 19 17 19
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security, Russia-Ukraine War, Emerging Technology, Quickfire Forecasts, Iran: Threats & Influence

Most Active Topics:
Russian Disinformation, Africa, Open RAN, Emerging Tech - AI, Economic Debt

New Badge
sigis earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Nov 2025

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
sigis earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Nov 2025

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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sigis earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Nov 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?
sigis made their 9th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 62%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
0% (-1%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
100% (+1%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?

Time decay

Files
Why might you be wrong?

 

Files
New Prediction
Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?
sigis made their 14th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (-1%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
98% (+1%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
1% (0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Why do you think you're right?

Time decay

Files
Why might you be wrong?

 

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Confirmed previous forecast

Files
Why might you be wrong?

 

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Confirmed previous forecast

Files
Why might you be wrong?

 

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Time decay

Files
Why might you be wrong?

 

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Confirmed previous forecast

Files
Why might you be wrong?

 

Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
sigis made their 14th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 20, 2025 to May 20, 2026
100% (0%)
No
Nov 20, 2025 to May 20, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Confirmed previous forecast

Files
Why might you be wrong?

 

Files
Files
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