RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2025 09:36PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	55%	Nov 13, 2025 to May 13, 2026	Dec 13, 2025	0%	+55%	-1%
No	45%	Nov 13, 2025 to May 13, 2026	Dec 13, 2025	100%	-55%	+1%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2025 09:36PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	Nov 13, 2025 to May 13, 2026	Dec 13, 2025	1%	+19%	+0%
No	80%	Nov 13, 2025 to May 13, 2026	Dec 13, 2025	99%	-19%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2025 09:36PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	Nov 13, 2025 to May 13, 2026	Dec 13, 2025	2%	+18%	+1%
No	80%	Nov 13, 2025 to May 13, 2026	Dec 13, 2025	98%	-18%	-1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2025 09:37PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	10%	3%	+7%	+0%
Latvia	13%	2%	+11%	+0%
Lithuania	15%	3%	+12%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2025 09:37PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Nov 13, 2025 to May 13, 2026	Dec 13, 2025	1%	+9%	-1%
No	90%	Nov 13, 2025 to May 13, 2026	Dec 13, 2025	99%	-9%	+1%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 05:25PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	66%	7%	+59%	+0%
No	34%	93%	-59%	+0%

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 05:37PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	4%	+16%	+0%
No	80%	96%	-16%	+0%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 05:42PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	7%	+53%	+0%
No	40%	93%	-53%	+0%

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 05:47PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $21.0 billion	5%	21%	-16%	+1%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion	5%	43%	-38%	+3%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion	10%	14%	-4%	+0%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion	25%	9%	+16%	-1%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion	55%	13%	+42%	-3%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 06:15PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	19%	+11%	-11%
No	70%	81%	-11%	+11%

spaceman

About: