telycorbett

Tom
About:
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-0.377168

Relative Brier Score

86

Forecasts

5

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 2 86 86 86
Comments 0 0 30 30 30
Questions Forecasted 0 2 12 12 12
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 5 5 5
 Definitions
New Prediction
telycorbett
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
98% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
telycorbett
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
telycorbett
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40% (-48%)
Yes
Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025
60% (+48%)
No
Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025

Calm after the storm

Files
New Prediction

Upping slightly.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
telycorbett
made their 6th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 27, 2024 07:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
telycorbett
made their 5th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 27, 2024 07:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (+3%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
96% (-3%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025

Current events make this highly unlikely, but possible.

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New Prediction
telycorbett
made their 7th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 27, 2024 07:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (+1%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
97% (-1%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
Saudi will not want to disturb the region further, even within the next 6 months from today.
Files
New Prediction
telycorbett
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
55% (+45%)
Yes
45% (-45%)
No

Second place right now. Definitely possible.

Files
New Prediction
telycorbett
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
96% (0%)
Yes
4% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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