The concept of "mirror life" starting to enter public consciousness through mass-media reporting (CNN) https://archive.is/paHdv
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Relative Brier Score
3
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0
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 60 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 47 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
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New Prediction
New Comment
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Trump will keep criticizing Ukraine while Putin is not backing down so EU will step in
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Why might you be wrong?
War could end or Ukrainian submission to Russia, or EU could be less supportive because of budgetary issues limiting their contribution.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Calendar progress towards the date and the situation being relatively unchanged to move the needle.
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Why do you think you're right?
We only need one country, and Malaysia seems particularly close, with a planned implementation in 2026, and details thus announced sometime in the calendar year: https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/my/pdf/budget2026-tl-indirect-tax-perspective.pdf
Why might you be wrong?