RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?	-0.014698
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?	-0.004701
May 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC	On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?	0.133763
Apr 28, 2025 01:00PM UTC	Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?	0.482627
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC	What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?	0.047733
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC	Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?	0.108831
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC	In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)	-0.349402
Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?	0.044834
Jan 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025)	-0.012874
Jan 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025)	-0.008797
Jan 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC	Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 1, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)	0.557894
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?	0.151412
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	-0.000021
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?	0.002151
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?	0.016181
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?	0.016045
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?	0.006891
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?	0.049657
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?	0.110882
Dec 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 28, 2024 and Dec 28, 2024)	0.0

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