Forecasted Questions
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2025 02:47PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 02, 2025 02:47PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2027 | Feb 2, 2026 | 6% | -4% | +2% |
| No | 98% | Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2027 | Feb 2, 2026 | 94% | +4% | -2% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2025 02:49PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 02, 2025 02:49PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2025 02:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 02, 2025 02:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 81% | 68% | +13% | +1% |
| 30 days | 9% | 6% | +3% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 4% | 6% | -2% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 5% | 16% | -11% | -1% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2025 02:51PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 02, 2025 02:51PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 7% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 93% | +5% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2025 02:52PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 02, 2025 02:52PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 18% | -8% | -2% |
| No | 90% | 83% | +8% | +2% |
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 02:27AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 02:27AM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 32% | 19% | +13% | -11% |
| No | 68% | 81% | -13% | +11% |
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 04:40AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 04:40AM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 10% | +5% | -4% |
| No | 85% | 90% | -5% | +4% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 04:41AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 04:41AM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 04:43AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 04:43AM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 62% | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 62% but less than 66% | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 66% but less than 70% | 11% | 4% | +7% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 70% but less than 74% | 88% | 96% | -8% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 74% | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 04:43AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 04:43AM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 1% | 2% | -1% | -1% |
| Not before 2026 | 99% | 98% | +1% | +1% |