Confirmed previous forecast
0.005525
Relative Brier Score
171
Forecasts
22
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 5 | 126 | 126 | 712 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 63 | 63 | 98 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 105 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 51 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
11%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
88%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Update for time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Update for time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-16%)
Yes
85%
(+16%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Update for time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Update for time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
32%
(-12%)
Yes
68%
(+12%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Shifting down with time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
My position was based on the general optimism on support from the EU, however have stumbled across positions that the general trend of support (financial and otherwise) is downwards.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
81%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
9%
(0%)
30 days
4%
(0%)
31-60 days
1%
(0%)
61-90 days
5%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 2, 2025 02:50PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files