Confirmed previous forecast
-0.133592
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 16 | 270 | 256 | 1952 |
| Comments | 1 | 5 | 124 | 121 | 239 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 15 | 38 | 32 | 158 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 37 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(-1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(+1%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Updating due to time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
2%
(0%)
30 days
6%
(0%)
31-60 days
6%
(0%)
61-90 days
20%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-3%)
Moldova
1%
(-1%)
Armenia
2%
(-1%)
Georgia
0%
(-1%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering as I expect, regardless of outcome, that the peace negotiations with USA incentivizes Russia to present itself as "peaceful" against its other neighbours. Moldova is the biggest question mark, but it's likely that Russia keeps using hybrid methods instead of direct invasion for long-term destabilization play.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files