RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 21, 2025 02:50PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
U.S. Entity	75%	79%	-4%	-3%
Non-U.S. Entity	45%	55%	-10%	+11%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2025 04:09PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	5%	4%	+1%	-2%

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2025 10:05AM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 4,499	20%	6%	+14%	-4%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive	65%	12%	+53%	+0%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive	15%	75%	-60%	+3%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive	0%	7%	-7%	+1%
More than or equal to 6,000	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2025 08:27AM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2025 08:38AM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 12, 2025 to May 12, 2026	Dec 12, 2025	0%	+1%	-1%
No	99%	Nov 12, 2025 to May 12, 2026	Dec 12, 2025	100%	-1%	+1%

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2025 08:56AM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
19	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
18	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
17	5%	1%	+4%	-1%
16 or fewer	94%	99%	-5%	+1%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 07:52PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	36%	-35%	+0%
No	99%	64%	+35%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 07:55PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	90%	84%	+6%	+6%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	9%	11%	-2%	-4%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	1%	3%	-2%	-1%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 01:37PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 03:26PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2027	Feb 26, 2026	6%	-1%	+0%
No	95%	Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2027	Feb 26, 2026	94%	+1%	+0%

DanAGS

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