RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

You quit this question on May 7, 2025 07:57PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
43 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 06, 2025 10:07AM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	100%	4%	+96%	-6%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:01PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	39%	42%	-3%	-1%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million	36%	35%	+1%	+0%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million	18%	15%	+3%	+0%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million	6%	5%	+1%	0%
More than or equal to $650 million	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
63 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:02PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2027	Mar 6, 2026	6%	+1%	+0%
No	94%	Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2027	Mar 6, 2026	95%	-1%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
71 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:02PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026	Jan 6, 2026	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026	Jan 6, 2026	99%	+0%	+1%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
42 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:02PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	70%	68%	+2%	+0%
30 days	0%	6%	-6%	+0%
31-60 days	4%	6%	-2%	+0%
61-90 days	4%	5%	-1%	+0%
91 days or more	22%	16%	+6%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
94 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:02PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	2%	3%	-1%	0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	97%	96%	+1%	0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
101 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:03PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	3%	3%	+0%	+0%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:03PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	46%	-6%	0%
No	60%	54%	+6%	0%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
34 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:04PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:04PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	36%	+34%	+0%
No	30%	64%	-34%	+0%

PeterStamp

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