Confirmed previous forecast
1.532748
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 16, 2025 01:32AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
65%
Yes
Jan 16, 2025 to Jul 16, 2025
35%
No
Jan 16, 2025 to Jul 16, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
After the onset of Russia-Ukraine, and Russia's apparent weaknesses, China may encourage and strengthen North Korea's ability to conduct a nuclear test through advancing partnership.
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Why might you be wrong?
North Korea will not conduct a nuclear test within the next six months because the West poses a big retaliation threat.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There are rumored to be concerns surrounding Putin's health.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin may be well physically.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 29, 2024 12:35AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
30%
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Yes, as tensions between Israel and Iran are escalating. Given also that Israel has already attacked facilities.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Microsoft will not close its AI Research Lab in China because China supplies a large amount of technological capital for a low price. This capital is useful for Microsoft's production. Additionally, the presence of Microsoft's AI Research Lab is a pillar of US enterprise strength in Asia, and its removal could have political implications.
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Why might you be wrong?
Political forces may force Microsoft to remove its location there. This may be in order to declare economic independence from China.
Files