30 % chance for strong winds on the coast, but the closest hurricane probably won't even become a major hurricane nor hit the continent in September.
-0.011391
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 26 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 17 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+5%)
Less than or equal to 1
1%
(-5%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden wildly unexpected wind-strengthtening event appears?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
94%
(-2%)
Less than or equal to 1
6%
(+2%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
2nd hurricane appeared, but it's going away from the American coasts.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Two potential hurricanes brewing in Atlantic and their direction is towards North America, the question is, will they reach the continent (and if they will, when?)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
96%
Less than or equal to 1
4%
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Base rate calculations and organization's forecasts.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The chance for 2+ major hurricanes to form in the North Atlantic in the next 20 days is decent but multiplying that with the likelihood of hitting ground in the continental America governed by the United States leaves small possibility.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-5%)
Yes
99%
(+5%)
No
Why might you be wrong?
Reporting the numbers could possibly change in a way that affects the percentages?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
44%
(+32%)
Yes
56%
(-32%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Microsoft 3.406 vs 3.381 Nvidia now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Tomorrow is the last day for the question, and the prices are so close it could go either way.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
94%
No
Why do you think you're right?
@sanyero wrote good rationale. I'll add a detail that even considering potentially 20 % higher number of sales in May and June, the portion of Battery-electric-vehicles (BEV) would have to rise from April's 15.7 % (or Jan-Apr 15.3 %) to 27 % which seems far-streched.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Quick policy changes, BEV-campaigns, or fossil fuel prices rising could contribute to people registering more BEVs.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There's 4 years and two months, enough for quite a bit of improvement, and although challenging goal, could happen within this time-frame.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12257-025-00205-x
Why might you be wrong?
I haven't extensively researched the relevant hardships in the journey towards assembling a completely synthetic ribosome in vitro.