HorribleHarry

There is a low (5%) but realistic possibility of this occurring now, because it should be evident to the entire world that US President D Trump will not intervene militarily. However, D Trump has shown a willingness -even an eagerness - to use economic pressure, threats, and bluster.  While this is not much of a deterrent, it is cause for continued caution. 

However, the reason for the 95% 'No' is that the end date for this forecast is too early. Chinese action against Taiwan is inevitable, but not timely. While it is near certain that China will take advantage of the weak US President, and act during his term, there is no need to do so at this point. With each passing month, China is able to increase its military strength, build up reserves to isolate itself from US economic pressure, and develop its chip industry. 

A ceasefire is in the best interests of both parties to "appear" reasonable. It projects a willingness to cooperate with US pressure for peace. However, the ceasefire will be violated within less than a week. It will be the last without a complete change in the invasion's dynamics.