Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2025 02:58PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 28, 2025 02:58PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 4% | 3% | +1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 6% | 2% | +4% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 7% | 3% | +4% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2025 02:58PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 28, 2025 02:58PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 35% | 6% | +29% | -1% |
| Armenia | 10% | 2% | +8% | +0% |
| Georgia | 40% | 3% | +37% | -2% |
| Kazakhstan | 10% | 1% | +9% | -1% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2025 02:58PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 28, 2025 02:58PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 7% | +0% | +1% |
| No | 93% | 93% | +0% | -1% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2025 03:02PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 28, 2025 03:02PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 90% | 68% | +22% | +4% |
| 30 days | 5% | 6% | -1% | -4% |
| 31-60 days | 3% | 6% | -3% | -2% |
| 61-90 days | 1% | 5% | -4% | 0% |
| 91 days or more | 1% | 16% | -15% | +2% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2025 09:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 30, 2025 09:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | Sep 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2027 | Dec 30, 2025 | 6% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 92% | Sep 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2027 | Dec 30, 2025 | 94% | -2% | +0% |