Retail sector is buying insatiably. If margins continue to be as high as they are, may have to declare a bigger dividend further driving demand for portfolios. Economy seems to be on good standing - no large scale hits to 401k buying in the short term.
0.952395
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If businesses divest from AI, citing low ROI. Supply chain disruptions.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
2030 is 6 years away and a lot can happen in 6 years.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 25, 2024 12:19AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
100%
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
An invasion of Taiwan is too costly for China.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Because of export controls and limited IP in China.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Have seen no evidence to support it.
Files
If a Chinese org had the capacity/capability to do so, it would have done it already.
Yi-Lightning was released on Oct 16, and it landed at #6: https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard
A similar line of thought just 2 weeks ago for "top 10" instead of top 3 would have rejected the possibility of such an event with 100% certainty; and ties count here (there can be 1, 2, 3 or more models at #3)...